On the whole, yes. (And that's him on the right, yeah.)

The evolution of mobile devices is going to center on the phone. WiFi is not a competitor, but a complementary technology. Most of what we'll need, we have.

But the word missing from this excellent piece is -- application.

I don't mean application in terms of a computer program. I mean application in terms of use in daily life. How are we going to adapt these devices to the way we live so we have all we need -- both in terms of computing and connectivity -- and an easy way of using it?

The big problem with Russell's vision is that, if everything's based on the present networks and the present devices, the future is controlled by carriers. And carriers are stupid (even when their networks are not).

So things won't evolve that way.

Instead I expect a new support infrastructure to emerge. Entrepreneurs refused by carriers are going to hit re-sellers.

Mobile service today is sold through a complex web of direct and indirect channels. You probably don't know (and don't care) which you're using, the price is the same. Some stores sell their own brand names, others don't.

What's lacking in both types of stores is intelligence, but this is about to change. That's because carriers are working to squeeze re-seller margins, essentially squeezing them out of the market. The re-sellers have an incentive to look for up-sells.

And that's where entrepreneurs come in. Right now they sell accessories and services. But I predict that this year many will start offering applications -- ways of working with devices and their software -- and the carriers won't give them the time of day. (They don't have the time to give them.)

So they will go to the re-sellers, who will become the industry's new de-facto gatekeepers. Part VAR, part New Haven try-out, part carnival. Smart re-sellers are going to embrace all this, bringing in managers who have a Clue and the authority to make decisions.

In this way mobility will become practical, new product offerings will be defined (and tested), and carriers can grow their markets with minimal risk.

Because if we leave the future solely to Verizon, Cingular, Sprint and T-Mobile, we're all going to end up very disappointed. Russell especially.