Corante

About this Author
Dana Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
About this Site
Moore’s Law defines the history of technology. It held that the number of circuits etched on a given piece of silicon could double every 18 months as far as its author, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, could see. Moore’s Law has spawned constant revolutions since then, not just in computing but in communications, in science, in a host of areas. Moore’s Law applies to radios, and to optical fiber, but there are some areas where it doesn’t apply. In this blog we’ll take a daily look at new implications of Moore’s Law in real time, as it rolls forward to create our future.
Media Bloggers
In the Pipeline: Don't miss Derek Lowe's excellent commentary on drug discovery and the pharma industry in general at In the Pipeline

Moore's Lore

« Blogs Moving On Up | Main | Thanks, Doc »

April 02, 2004

Sun Set

Email This Entry

Posted by Dana Blankenhorn

CRN is reporting that Sun Microsystems has settled all its disputes with Microsoft and entered into a broad alliance. (Sunset courtesy of XLCus.Com.)

Something like this was bound to happen. Despite Scott McNealy's brave talk at CTIA last week, he was in fact like Lee after Richmond fell. The only question was whether Gen. McNealy would surrender the Army of Northern California (Sun) to IBM or Microsoft.

To my surprise, he surrendered it to Microsoft.

Under the terms of the Sun-Microsoft agreement, Microsoft pays $1.6 billion to settle all outstanding legal issues, vice president-software Jonathan Schwartz becomes Sun COO, and Sun lays off 3,500 people while acknowledging a quarterly loss of $750-810 million. (Any similarity between this and the agreement Grant signed with Lee at Appamattox (pictured) is purely coincidental.)

What does it mean?

It means money talks. It means the most important asset a technology outfit can have is a big cash horde. (That's McNealy in happier days, from the Sun site.) It means that, in this industry, dividends are stupid. Cash, and the ability to keep generating it, are the only guarantors of independence.

This surrender is personally galling to McNealy, I know, but it was forced on him by the continuing technology recession, which despite a one-month jump in total employment hasn't ended, and looks more like the Texas Depression of the 1980s every day.

It also means that the Enterprise Space is fast becoming a duopoly with two sides to it.

One side has IBM. The other side has Microsoft, H-P, and Dell. Sun essentially becomes a software supplier to Microsoft, Java a Microsoft shop.

All suppliers -- and all customers -- must now line up on one side of this divide or the other. There is no longer a middle ground. Are you Linux? You're IBM. Are you Windows? You're Microsoft. Are you Apple? Sayonara.

For enterprise customers, it also means they can expect higher, and rising prices. A shared monopoly is going to mean that. And that's what the enterprise space has become, a duopoly.

The next competitive threat in the technology space will come from Asia, I guarantee. Once an economy exhausts itself into a monopoly or shared monopoly, the only way to upset the system is for pressure to come from outside. That's how markets work.

There's a final irony, given McNealy's staunch Republicanism over the years.

It was the Repubilcans' mishandling of this technology economy that brought you down, Scott. Think about that next time you write a check to the Bush re-election committee.

Comments (0) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: Business Strategy


TrackBack URL:
http://www.corante.com/cgi-bin/mt/backtar.cgi/6101


EMAIL THIS ENTRY TO A FRIEND

Email this entry to:

Your email address:

Message (optional):




RELATED ENTRIES
The Legend of Dennis Hayes
Evolution Changes Its Mind (Again)
Welcome to 1966
What Must Craigslist Do?
No Such Thing as Free WiFi
The Internet As A Political Issue
Google Images Ruled Illegal
Fall of Radio Shack