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Dana Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
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Moore’s Law defines the history of technology. It held that the number of circuits etched on a given piece of silicon could double every 18 months as far as its author, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, could see. Moore’s Law has spawned constant revolutions since then, not just in computing but in communications, in science, in a host of areas. Moore’s Law applies to radios, and to optical fiber, but there are some areas where it doesn’t apply. In this blog we’ll take a daily look at new implications of Moore’s Law in real time, as it rolls forward to create our future.
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May 04, 2004

New American Parlor Game

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Posted by Dana Blankenhorn

The great new American parlor game involves lining up on one side or the other of the Google IPO.

Normally I would ignore the hype. But this IPO offers important issues, chief among them the power of Wall Street to control the financial markets.

While the markets are located around Wall Street, brokers should not be controlling them. Yet they have controlled them, for over a century, manipulating prices through "analyst reports" with clear conflicts of interest.

And in this case, the conflict is manifest, because it's in the analysts' interest that this IPO fail.

This may be the first big IPO ever where analysts had that interest, but you need to understand the fact of it if you're to read between the lines here.

Google has unilaterally cut the commission Wall Street is taking on this deal, from the normal 7% of proceeds to 3%. It has also forbade its investment bankers from playing other reindeer games -- using IPO stock to reward big customers, setting a price that will discourage quick "flipping" (and quick profits).

If other companies follow Google's lead, if they wait until they don't need the money to sell stock, if they insist on low costs, if they discourage flipping, thousands of investment bankers will lose their jobs. No wonder Wall Street is dumping on this deal.

One of their chief points is that the founders are keeping control of the company after the deal. They have split the shares into "A" and "B" stock. They're keeping the B, which has 10 times the voting power of the A. The public can't buy out the founders. Wall Street calls this scandalous.

But if it is scandalous, it's not unusual, either. John Malone has played this game for years, but you don't see Wall Street complaining about it. The Coors brewery has super-voting B shares held by the family. It may be wrong (as the Business Week link from Coors notes) but 11.3% of the nearly 2,000 companies tracked by Investor Responsibility Research Center have multiple classes of common -- it's not unusual.

This is not to say Google is trouble-free. Google's Blogger has major problems -- I found I was unable to reach any Blogspot blog for much of yesterday evening, and the company is rapidly losing share to Movable Type. Google News is having trouble keeping up with the industry's registration firewalls, and has yet to deal effectively with "commentary" sites, essentially blogs masquerading as news sources. Google also faces growing competition, and the company's documents are far from transparent as to how many servers they actually have.

All that said, there is an easy way to play this. If you want some Google IPO stock, here's how to set a bid:

  • Look through the Google S-1 and find out how much money Google is bringing in. (I think it's about $1.1 billion, but I'm not making a bid, so look it up yourself.)
  • Check out other publicly traded search stocks, like Yahoo and Ask Jeeves, and find out what multiple of sales their stock trades at.
  • Add some percentage based on your expectation that Google will continue to show leadership -- 20% should do it.
  • Divide this number by the total number of Google shares that will exist after the offering -- it's in the S-1.
  • Bid for stock at that price, and don't worry if you don't get any.

    Bottom line. If you think this is a good investment, offer a rational price. Google doesn't want you chasing this stock, and the investment bankers are talking it down so you might get a bargain. If you stick to your discipline you'll get one, either with the IPO or in the secondary market.

    In other words, Google is treating you like an adult. Act like one and win or lose you will be rewarded.

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