I took the kids to see Shrek 2 today.

Good movie. Thumbs up and all that. Fun for the whole family. (The image is from Cinepop in Brazil.)

The Dreamworks picture is breaking all sorts of box office records. And the use of technology is astounding. I actually recognized Jennifer Saunders (as the Fairy Godmother) before she spoke -- computer animation has gotten that good.

But the theater where we saw it was practically empty. Now, this was a matinee, and the movie was playing on six of the theater's 18 screens. But the place was empty.

This got my spidey-sense tingling. (Sorry, wrong movie.) Let's just say it made me think.

A tipping point has been reached. Movie revenue from theaters is now dwarfed by revenue from DVDs. (This image is from the official site.)

Huge chunks of audience have abandoned the multiplex. So far this has squeezed the thinking of movie executives. They've packed themselves into those smaller boxes, selling either to families with young children, to teens, or to those whose dating relationship remains too new for either party's apartment.

That's a very small audience indeed.

Unfortunately, the "made for DVD" market, while lucrative, is still considered secondary. It's a place for second-rate sequels, for re-runs of old TV shows, and for niche products with poor production values. Even bad movies are in theaters months before they're available at a store near you.

Here's a prediction. This is going to change, soon.

It's going to change with one product, one movie that does hardly any business in the multiplex, makes a fortune on DVD. At which point it will dawn on the industry that they don't need the multiplex at all.

And, no Virginia, it won't happen with Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9-11." The controversy surrounding that movie is noise that renders any data from it worthless. If it pops as a DVD while doing nothing in the multiplex, in other words, the industry will blame the controversy, and ignore the trend.

Nope, it will be some other movie, something that bombs in theaters but does big, big business in stores. Or something that does modest business in theaters and becomes a hit in stores.

And when that story gets out -- when you read it in Variety rather than here -- the industry will change forever. No more shoe boxes, and no more lowest-common denominator decision-making. More movies for grownups.

It's going to happen very, very soon.