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July 09, 2004
Lies, Durned Lies, Statistics
Posted by Dana Blankenhorn
The news headline could have been taken straight from a press release.
"MPAA says 24% of internet users download pirated movies."
Is it true? No. This "study" has more holes in it than George Bush's WMD claims. Or Michael Moore's movie, if you prefer. We're not making a political point here...and to prove it here's a non-political picture on the subject of lieing that my kids found to be a lot of fun.
First, the MPAA did a study of broadband users only, and they're still a minority. Second, they classed anyone who downloaded any video material as a "pirate," so if you've checked out short films through your RealMedia player (perfectly legally) they've got you down as a bad 'un.
Note that in Japan, the most-wired country on the planet, the MPAA could only find one in ten people it could define as pirates.
The press release is filled with misleading statements, like this one about Korea, where downloads are heavy. "Roughly one third of offenders there said they were spending less money on legitimate viewing channels like cinemas and video." In other words if you're online, active, instead of parked in front of a screen, a potato, you're a threat to these people. Sheesh!
By manipulating the definition of your variables, you can conduct an experiment that proves anything. Remember that the next time a politician, a pressure group, or anyone comes to you with a statistic. Be skeptical. Test the assumptions. Don't automatically believe what you're told. Think about who's doing the telling, and why.
The liberty you save may be your own.
Comments (2)
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Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
1. joshua on July 16, 2004 01:48 PM writes...
They cannot stop it. Like water, the harder they clench their fists, the more we slip through their fingers. Fascism is not the answer. Don't attempt to use the government to wage a war against your patrons. Record companies and movie producers, let go of your greed.
Permalink to CommentLet capitalism flow, by lowering your prices, and selling your media for closer to its true value, You will defeat piracy.
2. joshua on July 16, 2004 02:12 PM writes...
Its like this: the true value of the media as defined, would be the cost of the raw materials used to produce it. With the advent of cd and dvd technology the cost to produce this media is next to nothing. If the record companies followed the same models of profitablity as other product wholesalers in this would be capitalist society, with a 100% to 200% markup, piracy would be a complete waste of time, and when all was said and done they wouldn't even save that much, and pirates wouldn't get the words and pictures and it wouldn't even be worth it. In the long run record companies would sell many many times the amount of cds and dvds, the people of the world would see their collections grow exponentially and in the long run the record and movie producers would probably see an increase in profits.
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