The history of computing is defined by entrepreneurs.
First came the Tom Watsons, Senior (1874 - 1956) (pictured to the right) and Junior (1914 - 1993) (below left, both from the Watson Labs' official site).

But Watson Jr. retired in 1971 and IBM became lazy. They defined themselves by their sales relationships with the Fortune 500, which used Big Iron. Under John Akers IBM became vulnerable to the first "kid with a Clue" who could see that the "platform story" IBM depended upon was tired, not wired.
That kid, of course, was Bill Gates. He saw that the PC would be the new platform, and that its foundation wasn't in the hardware, but in the operating system. By first selling IBM on MS-DOS, then outmanuevering IBM on Microsoft Windows, William H. Gates III became the true heir to the Watsons' legacy.
Yet computing's evolution has continued to accelerate. Microsoft had little play in local networking, which defined the 1980s, and struggled to get on top of the Internet, which defined the 1990s. (The Gates caricature is from a fine Italian artist. Visit his site.)
Now history is about to throw another threat Microsoft's way. Ironically, when he should be at his most comfortable, Bill Gates is now at his most vulnerable.
He's ripe for the taking.
Instead of helping define the new platform, Microsoft is cutting back, soaking what it can from the old platform, as in a new "online store" based on the precious real estate of the Windows XP start menu.

All this makes Microsoft vulnerable to the first "kid with a Clue" who focuses on the next platform, the wireless network. (Although it's unlikely to be the kid pictured here. That's actor-musician Steve Burns with former co-star Blue.)
The wireless network takes the benefits of PC processing and Internet connectivity and puts them into the air. You will be able to define the limits of your network precisely, using mesh technology and cognitive radios, along with security. And the applications for that network, using data you create in your daily life, and interfaces like voice or pre-set instructions, are just amazing.
Imagine having complete control of your blood pressure, or blood sugar. Imagine having a garden that never goes dry but uses the minimum amount of water. Imagine being able to live at home for years longer, despite infirmities or even diseases like Alzheimer's that now put millions into nursing care prematurely.

Imagine all this, and more. Imagine being able to find your keys instantly, even after you're sure you lost them. Imagine knowing whether you can make spaghetti alfredo tonight, from your desk in the office, and being able to make sure the remaining ingredients are waiting for you. (That's Burns again, by the way, from his official site.)
Imagine talking to your computer, not rushing to a keyboard and mouse. Imagine having your music follow you around from room to room, or having all your TV files available instantly from anywhere in the house.
What's great about all these applications is they don't take new technology. Just as the ingredients for the first home PC were available in the mid-1970s, in magazines, through the mail, and at meeting places like the Homebrew Computer Club, things like cognitive radios, mesh networks, networked sensors and high-volume home LANs are ready now.
All that's needed is a "killer app" that will define the space, a product of immense value, but built on an expandable platform, so people will buy the platform to get the product. That's what Visicalc was for Apple. What will it be for the new platform?
Microsoft will never know. They have the money, right now, to create that platform, to define that platform, to build that app, and to market it. Instead they're counting pennies, replacing canned Coke with fountain drinks, enjoying their monopoly, getting fat and lazy.
The way is clear to the first "kid with a Clue" who can get the jump on this sleeping giant, define that platform, and control the underlying technology.
By the looks of it, it won't be Bill Gates. The crown is there for the taking.
Do you have what it takes to take it?
1. Jackie Danicki on July 15, 2004 06:52 AM writes...
Totally off-topic, but another Tom Watson is Britain's first blogging Member of Parliament (www.tom-watson.co.uk).
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