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September 29, 2004
Don't Believe Any Survey
Posted by Dana Blankenhorn
Don't believe surveys. Any surveys.
I'm talking about more than the Presidential Polls. I'm talking about any survey, public or private, no matter the subject, that claims statistical validity based on calling people on the telephone.
The technique is broken. Cellular killed the polling star.
It's not as bad here as it's going to get. Norway, for instance, now has more mobile phones than it has people, and the business is bigger than landlines (in a developed country with lots of wires). And you can't cold call people on a mobile, because users pay for incoming calls, not just outgoing calls.
But consider the business implications. How will you get the valid data you need to launch a consumer product without telephone surveys?
Answer that one for me.
Comments (1)
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Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
1. Jesse Kopelman on September 29, 2004 02:52 PM writes...
Well, if pollsters and other cold callers can make it worth their while, the carreirs could always go to calling-party-pays. Most of the world has calling-party-pays for mobile. Anyway, as the cost of a call inexorably approaches 0, it may not matter much longer.
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