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March 06, 2005
Moore's Law of Market Acceptance
Posted by Dana Blankenhorn
Intel says its Wireless USB is going to eliminate Bluetooth. (Bluetooth image courtesy Babok Farokhi.)
It's faster, has less interference, and it's just better.
Uh-huh. Maybe that's all true. But even if it is, that will take time.
Bluetooth has taken over a half-decade to reach its present level of prominence, and many mobile phones still don't have the capability -- despite cool applicationsl like Hypertag being written for it. (Thanks to point-n-click and Billboard for that link.)
I have headlined this Moores Law of Market Acceptance because, again, there is none. (It's like Moore's Law of Training.) Market acceptance is a human process, involving many actors.
The rate at which a new technology is accepted and replaces an old one depends on how revolutionary it is, how nimble its sponsors, and how rapid is the replacement within the older market.
Is Wireless USB revolutionary? Not really. Is Intel very nimble? No, it's not. How fast is the replacement market? Very fast.
So if Intel is right, absolutely right, we're talking about about 3-5 years before Wireless USB is in and Bluetooth is out.
It's just Moore's Law in action.
Comments (1)
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1. philox on March 14, 2005 06:45 AM writes...
I don't think Hypertag has been specifically designed for Bluetooth as they are working with Infrared from the beginning. But Kameleon Technologies did. And it's been now seven years that we have been improving Bluetooth to make it accurate for an application to mobile marketing and content downloading.
Permalink to CommentGo to www.kameleon-europe.com to know more.