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Dana Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
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Moore’s Law defines the history of technology. It held that the number of circuits etched on a given piece of silicon could double every 18 months as far as its author, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, could see. Moore’s Law has spawned constant revolutions since then, not just in computing but in communications, in science, in a host of areas. Moore’s Law applies to radios, and to optical fiber, but there are some areas where it doesn’t apply. In this blog we’ll take a daily look at new implications of Moore’s Law in real time, as it rolls forward to create our future.
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Moore's Lore

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March 06, 2005

Moore's Law of Market Acceptance

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Posted by Dana Blankenhorn

Intel says its Wireless USB is going to eliminate Bluetooth. (Bluetooth image courtesy Babok Farokhi.)

It's faster, has less interference, and it's just better.

Uh-huh. Maybe that's all true. But even if it is, that will take time.

Bluetooth has taken over a half-decade to reach its present level of prominence, and many mobile phones still don't have the capability -- despite cool applicationsl like Hypertag being written for it. (Thanks to point-n-click and Billboard for that link.)

I have headlined this Moores Law of Market Acceptance because, again, there is none. (It's like Moore's Law of Training.) Market acceptance is a human process, involving many actors.

The rate at which a new technology is accepted and replaces an old one depends on how revolutionary it is, how nimble its sponsors, and how rapid is the replacement within the older market.

Is Wireless USB revolutionary? Not really. Is Intel very nimble? No, it's not. How fast is the replacement market? Very fast.

So if Intel is right, absolutely right, we're talking about about 3-5 years before Wireless USB is in and Bluetooth is out.

It's just Moore's Law in action.

Comments (1) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: 802.11 | Moore's Lore | cellular | computer interfaces | e-commerce | marketing | online advertising


1. philox on March 14, 2005 06:45 AM writes...

I don't think Hypertag has been specifically designed for Bluetooth as they are working with Infrared from the beginning. But Kameleon Technologies did. And it's been now seven years that we have been improving Bluetooth to make it accurate for an application to mobile marketing and content downloading.
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