This summer will be the peak of the Voice Over IP (VOIP) boom. (The illustration, by the way, is from Poland. No, he doesn't look Polish.)

It's an easy prediction because Philips announced at CTIA a reference design for "converged handsets," with 802.11 and GSM or GPRS cellular in the same package.

We've seen the success of Vonage and Skype. We've seen the growth of 802.11 "hot spots" in hotels, airports, and on campuses. We've now seen the cellular industry adopt to VOIP. It's happy days.

So why am I predicting it's all going to end?

It's because VOIP is basically a tax dodge.

VOIP has already pressed the profits out of long distance. Savings now are based on the differing tax treatment of Internet connections and voice connections.

While the U.S. is continuing to suppress incumbents' efforts to close VOIP, that's not true everywhere. Governments around the world have become dependent on long distance telephone taxes, and a cozy relationship with incumbents. They won't give that up readily. (The illustration is from a gold bug's economic lecture, circa 2002.)

Here's another easy prediction. Sometime in the next few months you'll see a story about how spammers and other nogoodniks are taking advantage of public WiFi hotspots to spread their warez. This will lead to registration requirements, security -- a full-scale clampdown by fall.

Meanwhile, as cellular broadband coverage increases you're going to see fewer road warriors requiring 802.11 coverage in order to do VOIP. Cellular has already led the move to eliminating per-minute long distance (if you're calling across the country you do it on your cell, as part of your regular plan) so the per-minute issue is already going away.

VOIP has been useful. It has served a great purpose.

But it's going to start going away, absorbed into your Internet connection, absorbed into the public phone network and cellular network, just another feature.