In The Lost Point, I wrote that Google risked being outmanuevered because it didn't pay proper attention to Blogger.
Today Duncan Riley of The Blog Herald goes further. He says the game is already over, that Microsoft won, that the field is consolidating into the three big portal players so Movable Type needs to sell out to Yahoo, quick.
Riley is right as far as he goes.
But if you click below, we'll go a bit further.
There are actually two blog markets.
- There is the market for hosting generic blogs, a commodity market much like the old market for "personal Web pages" back in the 1990s.
- Then there is the blog software market, where the battle is over features and scalability.
Blogger mainly competes in the first market, hosting, and Spaces is a real threat there. But Movable Type competes in the second market, and Spaces is not yet a threat there.
Let's look at this second market more closely.
What are the features we want for better blog functionality?
- Simple support for disparate file types -- videos, mobile photos, podcasts, etc.
- Scaled discussion.
- Management features, including security.
- RSS functionality and publicity.
- Total cost of ownership, which includes hosting, hardware, support, and updating.
- Insert your own key driver here.
There are many, many players in this market. There are community packages like Slash and Scoop. There are open source projects like WordPress. I know I'm missing several good options, and apologize for it.
Not everyone cares about such things. The market for feature-rich blog software is only a fraction of the total number of possible accounts. But over time markets move toward higher functionality. Those who attract, and keep, the power users have big advantages, and SixApart's Movable Type has held its own in this part of the market. (Note: Corante runs on Movable Type.)
Besides, there are risks to being in the commodity hosting business which don't exist when you're pushing software. Risks come from spammers, scammers, and content. The costs of policing a space you claim to own go up rapidly as the size of that space increases. Ask eBay.
Riley also says Microsoft has upwards of 7 million accounts. But I very seldom come across a Spaces address in my RSS feeds. What are these 7 million people doing with their MSN blogs? If no one reads a blog, how can you sell ads against it? How much traffic goes to MSN Spaces, vs. the traffic going to Blogger blogs, or MT blogs for that matter?
I'm just asking.
The point is there's more than one game afoot, and there is more to any blogging market than meets the eye. Riley is right to take note of MSN Spaces. But not everyone has to dance to Microsoft's tune.
Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
1. michael on April 26, 2005 07:20 PM writes...
I have a feeling that lot of those MSN Spaces accounts were just opened by people wanting to see what it's all about.
Like you, I have come across very few blogs there.
Permalink to Comment2. Duncan Riley on April 26, 2005 09:39 PM writes...
I understand what you are saying but I must contend that I was talking about SixApart as a whole, not MT alone, indeed I actually suggest that MT may be the only real, standalone future SixApart has.
I would content there are three markets, free hosting, paid hosting and DIY. Microsoft is about to win the free hosting, in which it competes with SixAparts Live Journal. I then suggest that Microsoft will move into the paid/ or business hosting market as its next move, which puts it up against SixApart's TypePad. I don't really see Microsoft presenting any sort of major challegne to MT itself, because there isn't much money in the DIY market and its not big enough to bother with (think desktop Linux v windows, MT is linux) It's important to be clear though, MT is not SixApart and I'm not suggesting that MT sell out, I'm suggesting SixApart sell out because they won't be able to compete in their key (profitable) markets for much longer.
Permalink to Comment3. Jim Kukral on April 26, 2005 11:59 PM writes...
Good thoughts from both of you. Like you, I have not actually met anyone with a Spaces blog...err...social network with comments.
For every Microsoft, there's a Unix.
Permalink to Comment4. Adam Weinroth on May 3, 2005 06:12 PM writes...
Dana, to chime in on your question:
Rather than looking at individual Spaces blogs as a collective of individual properties awaiting ad insertions (a la many MT blogs we commonly see), I think you have to look at MSN Spaces as one large roll-up property and then sponsor the community. In fact, this is exactly what MSN did with their Volvo sponsorship placements. The community sponsorship model is a great way to go for brand advertisers whose spending goals are more focused on volume CPM buys, and less focused on CPC-on-niche plays. Permalink to Comment